The Obama Factor

John Vu

It is now inevitable that Barrack Hussein Obama will be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. And there is great chance that his historical stature of being the first Democratic minority presidential nominee will give him a place in the Oval Office.

How would this national event affect the Vietnamese-American politics in the Bay Area and Orange County?

The Background

In the Bay Area, there are two well known political players for their deep pockets, one of the Republican Party and the other of the Democratic Party. Dr. Ngai Nguyen is a well known heart surgeon in the Bay Area who owns two rehab and long term care centers in San Jose. And he is famous for his generous support of the Republican Party. In his private office, there are displayed pictures of him with President George W. Bush at the White House, with Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at private meeting discussing about Vietnam democracy issues, other Republican elected officials as well as bigwigs of the party. Michael Luu, the lawyer and businessman turned real estate developer and currently a planning commissioner, is the Dr. Nguyen of the Democratic Party (Or one can say that Dr. Nguyen is the Michael Luu of the Republican Party). He raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Hillary Clinton. He is well connected and local politicians benefit greatly from his generosity.

From their perspectives, there are no prominent political candidates in the Vietnamese-American community that has the gravitas or the credibility to be at the national or state stage at the moment. So the outcome of the presidential race has no effect on the local scene.

But down south, it is another matter according to coffee loving, chain smoking political gadflies of Bolsa Avenue. To them, the state assemblyman Van Tran is taking aim at Loretta Sanchez’s seat and he is rolling the dice for Obama to improve his odd against Sanchez.

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez is a woman in her late 40s with exuding feminine confidence. She loves bright attractive dresses and sensual perfume. She is so comfortable with herself that one time in her office, she changed her cloth in front of a female reporter doing an interview as if the reporter was not there. She represents a swath of Orange County that was redistricted to favor a large Hispanic constituent.

Her mostly democratic district is about 45% Hispanic and 17% Vietnamese-American registered voters. She is well aware that the swing vote is with the Vietnamese-American voters and her effort in the community on anti-communist and human rights issues are prominently advertised. Her supports of the community (e.g., a well documented trip back to Vietnam trying to meet with dissidents) have made her many friends in the community.

Assemblyman Van Tran will be termed out in 2010 and he is looking hard for a race to continue his political career. The natural career move is either a state senate or a congressional seat. The state senatorial seat is not available to him and the only one that seems to be the logical choice with a large minority constituent is Sanchez’s seat.

The lawyer Lan Nguyen, Tran’s close advisor, sent an email out earlier to a small circle of supporters asking for fund raising support for Van in the 2010 congressional race. Tran works hard to build his own political machine ever since he is in office. The most visible of the machine is the so called by the mainstream community “The Trannies”. This is a coalition 7 elected officials from school board to city council that would do the bidding for him to “clear the field” so to speak.

The Classic Opportunity

Many political pundits would not consider Tran as a threat to Sanchez if he decided to run. He is visible weaken himself with his all out support of Mr. Photoshop candidate – the controversial Trung Nguyen – against County Supervisor Janet Nguyen. And now by throwing his political machine behind another controversial and weak candidate (Dina Nguyen) to run against the incumbent Janet Nguyen, he is viewed by many of risking his political capital needlessly.

At the end of the day, his zeal against Janet Nguyen ruins the career of Trung Nguyen and might end up destroying the political future of Dina Nguyen but Tran needs to move on and prepare himself for his next big move. He has to prepare financially and he needs to get back the attention and the goodwill of his Vietnamese-American base. What would be more enticing to the community than to be the first credible Vietnamese-American running for congress.

He knows that the numbers are not there to run against Sanchez but that is where national politics can deliver Tran his opportunity.

Barrack Obama is embarking on a historical presidential race. But along the way, he will need to convince the Hispanic voters that an African American politician can represent and look after their interests. There is a deep mistrust between the two largest minority groups in the country. And if he wins, there is a good chance that Sanchez would be select for visible cabinet position in his administration.

An in an off year election to replace an incumbent, anything can happen, especially to those who are prepared financially and politically. The Hispanic voter turn out is always low in an off year election while the Vietnamese-American voter turn out is always high, especially if there is a chance to make history.

But can a Vietnamese-American Republican win in a Hispanic Democratic district in political climate leaning heavily toward the democrats? The answer is for future history to write….